Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for James Madison-Duke, Texas A&M-Houston and Northwestern-Connecticut.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of NCAA Tournament games today.
5:15 p.m. ET: James Madison vs Duke (-7, 148)
This South Region matchup will be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. James Madison (32-3) is the 12-seed and just upset Wisconsin 72-61 in the opening round. Meanwhile, Duke (25-8) is the 4-seed and just dismissed Vermont 64-47 in the opener. This line opened with Duke listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and they’re grabbing the points with James Madison. However, despite 67% of spread bets taking James Madison we’ve seen Duke remain stagnant at -7 and even flirt with a move to -7.5 at some shops. Normally, if a dog is getting such lopsided support you would see the line move in their favor. The fact that this line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on Duke, with pro money fading trendy dog James Madison and instead laying the points with the Blue Devils. Duke is only receiving 33% of spread bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (8th vs 65th) and better defensive efficiency (22nd vs 55th). Ken Pom has Duke winning by eight points (79-71). He also has Duke ranked higher (9th vs 57th). Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 149 to 148. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 53% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
8:40 p.m. ET: Texas A&M vs Houston (-9.5, 134.5)
This South Region matchup will be played at FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee. Texas A&M (21-14) is the 9-seed and just crushed Nebraska 98-83 in the first round. Similarly, Houston (31-4) is the 1-seed and just obliterated Longwood 86-46 in the opener. This line opened with Houston listed as a 10-point neutral site favorite. The public expects another Houston blowout and is happy to lay the points. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -10 to -9.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Texas A&M, with pros grabbing the unpopular Aggies plus the points. Texas A&M is receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Aggies will lean on their rebounding advantage, ranking 1st in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Ken Pom has Houston winning by ten points (71-61). As a result, Texas A&M backers would be wise to wait and/or shop around to see if they can grab a +10. We’ve also seen some smart money hit the over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5.
7:45 p.m. ET: Northwestern vs Connecticut (-14, 136)
This East Region matchup will be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Northwestern (22-11) is the 9-seed and just upset Florida Atlantic in overtime 77-65 in the first round. On the other hand, Connecticut (32-3) is the 1-seed and just crushed Stetson 91-52 in the opener. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 14.5-point neutral site favorite. The public expects another lopsided Huskies win and they’re rushing to lay the points with Connecticut. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen Connecticut dip slightly from -14.5 to -14. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easer for Connecticut backers when they’re already hammering the Huskies to begin with? Because pros have taken the big points with Northwestern, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Wildcats. Northwestern takes better care of the ball (7th in turnovers vs 45th) and also shoots better from three-point range (39% vs 37th). Ken Pom has Connecticut winning by ten points (75-65), which provides actionable value on Northwestern at the current price. Those looking to hold their nose and Northwestern would be wise to wait and/or shop around for the hook.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of NCAA Tournament games today.
5:15 p.m. ET: James Madison vs Duke (-7, 148)
This South Region matchup will be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. James Madison (32-3) is the 12-seed and just upset Wisconsin 72-61 in the opening round. Meanwhile, Duke (25-8) is the 4-seed and just dismissed Vermont 64-47 in the opener. This line opened with Duke listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and they’re grabbing the points with James Madison. However, despite 67% of spread bets taking James Madison we’ve seen Duke remain stagnant at -7 and even flirt with a move to -7.5 at some shops. Normally, if a dog is getting such lopsided support you would see the line move in their favor. The fact that this line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on Duke, with pro money fading trendy dog James Madison and instead laying the points with the Blue Devils. Duke is only receiving 33% of spread bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Duke has the better offensive efficiency (8th vs 65th) and better defensive efficiency (22nd vs 55th). Ken Pom has Duke winning by eight points (79-71). He also has Duke ranked higher (9th vs 57th). Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 149 to 148. The under is receiving 46% of bets but 53% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
8:40 p.m. ET: Texas A&M vs Houston (-9.5, 134.5)
This South Region matchup will be played at FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee. Texas A&M (21-14) is the 9-seed and just crushed Nebraska 98-83 in the first round. Similarly, Houston (31-4) is the 1-seed and just obliterated Longwood 86-46 in the opener. This line opened with Houston listed as a 10-point neutral site favorite. The public expects another Houston blowout and is happy to lay the points. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -10 to -9.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Texas A&M, with pros grabbing the unpopular Aggies plus the points. Texas A&M is receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Aggies will lean on their rebounding advantage, ranking 1st in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Ken Pom has Houston winning by ten points (71-61). As a result, Texas A&M backers would be wise to wait and/or shop around to see if they can grab a +10. We’ve also seen some smart money hit the over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5.
7:45 p.m. ET: Northwestern vs Connecticut (-14, 136)
This East Region matchup will be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Northwestern (22-11) is the 9-seed and just upset Florida Atlantic in overtime 77-65 in the first round. On the other hand, Connecticut (32-3) is the 1-seed and just crushed Stetson 91-52 in the opener. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 14.5-point neutral site favorite. The public expects another lopsided Huskies win and they’re rushing to lay the points with Connecticut. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen Connecticut dip slightly from -14.5 to -14. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easer for Connecticut backers when they’re already hammering the Huskies to begin with? Because pros have taken the big points with Northwestern, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Wildcats. Northwestern takes better care of the ball (7th in turnovers vs 45th) and also shoots better from three-point range (39% vs 37th). Ken Pom has Connecticut winning by ten points (75-65), which provides actionable value on Northwestern at the current price. Those looking to hold their nose and Northwestern would be wise to wait and/or shop around for the hook.
